London Election Stats

I am indebted to Croydonian for alerting me earlier this week to the release of the London election results broken down by ward*. Enjoy!

(Health warning for LibDems: You won’t enjoy this. As you’ll see further below, if these results were repeated in the 2010 council elections, you would end up with fewer councillors than the BNP.)

Firstly, the main contest …

Biggest Boris Vote
1. Stanley Ward (R.B. Kensington & Chelsea) 79.96%
2. Royal Hospital Ward (Kensington & Chelsea) 79.68%
3. Knightsbridge & Belgravia Ward (Westminster) 78.59%
Inner London average 36.24%
Outer London average 48.35%

Biggest Livingstone Vote
1. East Ham North (Newham) 73.42%
2. Green Street West (Newham) 70.92%
3. Southall Broadway (Ealing) 69.77%
Inner London average 43.80%
Outer London average 31.97%

Biggest Paddick Vote
1. The Wrythe (Sutton) 20.02% (Even here, Livingstone polled around 2.5% higher, and Boris over 26% more)
2. Wandle Valley (Sutton) 19.43%
3. St. Marks (K.C.) 19.28%
Inner London average 10.21%
Outer London average 9.49%

Now as any fule kno, it was Outer London that won it for Boris, with a 12 point lead in the outer boroughs, against Ken’s 12 point lead in the inners. Only with the ward results, and the resultant borough breakdowns, is this even clearer than when just comparing GLA constituencies, some of which straddle inner and outer London.

Although the gap was roughly equal and reversed between inner and outer London, it is clear that outer London, with approximately 800,000 more voters, was going to have the edge. Also, the inner London wards may have registered the very highest vote shares, but with the average ward size in outer London being approximately 500 voters larger, the Conservatives’ doughnut strategy was thoroughly vindicated.

“But but but..” cry the Lib Dems, “you’re only counting first preferences. That’s not fair.” Yes I am, and yes it is.

Moving on, with such a presidential style contest some focus has been given to the extra boost that that the mayoral candidates give to the “normal” party vote. Let’s compare the mayoral vote share (yes, first preferences again) to the party list “London Member” vote and look at the “premium” that the mayoral candidates gave to their parties.

Boris Premium
Highest in Mayesbrook (Barking & Dagenham) 24.64%
Lowest in Southall Broadway (Ealing) 2.88%
Overall 8.57%

Ken Premium
Highest in Spitalfields & Banglatown (Tower Hamlets): 31.50 %
Lowest in Eastbrook (Barking & Dagenham): 0.37%
Overall 9.42%

Paddick “Premium”
Highest in Thames (Barking & Dagenham): 3.27%
Lowest in Teddington (Richmond): -17.51%
Overall -1.61%

Not brilliant news for poor old Brian, then – he actually generated a negative premium – a “Brian discount” if you will. Well, as he has effectively said, the Lib Dems are rubbish at campaigning in London now. (Bad workmen and all that, Brian?)

So looking ahead to 2010, which could be the safest wards in London? Here are the final redoubts, based on the party list votes (as opposed to the mayoral votes – see above) for each party which scored a majority in any ward, which therefore includes the BNP and Greens:

Safest Conservative Ward
… by majority: Royal Hospital (Kensington & Chelsea) 65.41%
… by vote share: Knightsbridge & Belgravia (Westminster) 77.25%

Safest Labour Ward
… by majority: Southall Broadway (Ealing) 49.59%
… by vote share: Southall Broadway (Ealing) 64.94%

Safest LD Ward
… by majority: Muswell Hill (Haringey) 3.62%
… by vote share: Teddington (Richmond): 33.93% (but still beaten by the Conservatives)

In fact, based on these party list votes, the Lib Dems would take only two other wards in the whole of London: Alexandra (also Haringey) and Cathedrals (Southwark). The BNP would have more councillors, with eight wards.

Safest BNP Ward
… by majority: Mayesbrook (Barking & Dagenham) 15.67%
… by vote share: Mayesbrook (Barking & Dagenham) 38.47%

Safest Green ward
… by majority: Highgate (Camden): 0.18%
… by vote share: Brockley (Lewisham): 29.94%

And if you’ll indulge me, we’ll look at the absolute number of votes…

Largest number of votes (1st pref. mayoral)
Conservative: Hayes & Coney Hall (Bromley) 4,025 (What, my own ward? Mais oui! Why do you think I included this particular list?)
Labour: St Dunstan`s & Stepney Green (Tower Hamlets) 2,547
Lib Dem: Southfields (Wandsworth) 678

Now let’s wrap up the turnout records. I must admit I haven’t got the up to date electorate figures for every borough, most being brought forward from 2006, so take these with a pinch of salt …

Highest Turnouts
1. St. Katharine`s & Wapping (Tower Hamlets) 62.09%
2. Eastbrook (Barking and Dagenham) 59.86%
3. Stoke Newington Central (Hackney) 59.34%

Lowest Turnouts
1. Thames (Barking and Dagenham) 22.68%
2. Stratford And New Town (Newham) 22.77%
3. Cranford (Hounslow) 22.86%

Now for the booby prizes - we find out who will have to stand in the corner with the dunce’s hat on.

The most spoilt votes (1st prefs, of all votes cast) were 7.08% of ballots in Alperton (Brent)

And for the fewest spoilt papers, the gold star goes to …, the postal voters of the City, with the good burghers of the square mile only messing up two ballot papers. Otherwise, the electors in Royal Hospital ward (Kensington & Chelsea) can be smug, having only failed twelve times, or on 0.569% of ballots.

When we come to second preferences, a significant number of voters didn’t cast a vote, and this makes up the bulk (over 400,000) of spoilt 2nd preference votes. The ward whose voters were most sure that their choice would make it to the second round (or maybe they were just in a hurry) was Northumberland Park (Haringey) with 35.78% blank second preferences.

One particular category of spoilt ballot is “voting too many times”, and so we can reveal that the ward where Robert Mugabe would find himself most at home is … Plaistow South (Newham): 3.28% (95 such spoilt papers).

I think that’ll do for now. My anorak awaits its owner.

* Well, all except the postal votes, for which I only have the borough totals so far, and which I have had to ignore for the purposes of most of this election stat-fest.

Momentum

So Boris is in, but the good news for the Conservatives continued (almost) through to the assembly results.

Having yesterday dismissed our chances of gaining any top-up seats, I must happily breakfast on humble pie today and congratulate our three new London-wide members, including former Conservative nomination hopefuls Andrew Boff and Victoria Borwick, and Bexley councillor Gareth Bacon. The LibDems won’t be in party mood though – they lost 2 of their five list members, and were hammered even more than Labour across the capital, suffering a swing to the Conservatives of 5.5% (based on the constituency vote). The swing from Labour was 1.5%.

The biggest individual hit suffered by the LibDems was in Bexley & Bromley where James Cleverly scored a 10.2% swing, as well as chalking up a record and thumping 75,000 majority. Labour’s worst swing was 6.6% in Havering & Redbridge where old hand Roger Evans tightened the Conservative grip.

The one sour note was the loss of Bob Blackman in Brent & Harrow, where the Labour candidate squeaked in, no doubt on the strength of being on Livingstone’s home patch.

The headlines are focussing on Boris’ historic victory – which will be a relief to the LibDems who have struggled to make any mark on Thursday. Yesterday Nick Clegg said that the local election results were “regaining momentum”. He’s not wrong – after all, he didn’t specify in what direction the momentum was going!

Boris Boris Boris!

I will be quite happy not to see another leaflet for delivery, or another letterbox, or another canvassing sheet for a month or two, thank you.

Now, though, the count is underway for the London elections. I guess Friday counts are much more civilised – the candidate can get something resembling sleep on election night (yeah, right) - and I assume it works out cheaper than paying election staff for unsociable hours. Even so, I would imagine it lacks the atmosphere of the early hours of a Friday morning, with results coming in from around the country. And what could kill the excitement off more effectively then an electronic count? No vote tallying as the boxes are opened and their contents spilled out onto the table? What’s a political anorak to do?

Across London, Conservatives tend to have little interest in the “top-up” consolation seats, but some pundits are predicting a seat for the BNP. I have to agree that this is, sadly, quite feasible.

The BNP polled 4.84%, just below the magic 5%, in 2004. The 2006 council results in Barking and Dagenham saw them poll the equivalent of around 7,500 votes in seven wards – extrapolated across London (though more probably focussed on the traditional “white working class” Labour areas, where BNP support is most fertile), one can see that the extra 0.16% isn’t much of a hill to climb.

Interesting times ahead.

(Partly cross-posted at SELblog)

Oh What a Night

It’s 1968 all over again … so I’m told - not that I was around to remember 1968.

I do remember the mid nineties, though. The delusion that it was all mid-term blues, that every minor ministerial announcement might help to turn the tide. That losing hundred of council seats was a temporary blip and the opinion polls were telling it wrong again. Alas, the dark days for the party were the precursor to the drubbing we got in 1997.

Note to Labour activists – this is where you are. The tide has turned, and there’s nothing you can do about it except brace yourself and work to keep the next Conservative parliamentary majority to a minimum. Of course, as a good Tory I hope Labour carry on as we did and crash and burn in 2009/10.

So we have taken councils like Harlow - not a bad barometer, Bury – a good foothold in Greater Manchester, Southampton - where yours truly spent the odd student night out (OK, so no political significance there), and Maidstone, which has been NOC for donkey’s years, and was something of a near miss for us last year, and not just because of my efforts.

The Lib Dems have consolidate their position … as the anti-party. They used to be anti-Conservative, now they are anti-Labour. Swapping their ex-Conservative councils for Town Halls gained from Labour. Is there anyone who genuinely votes for the Lib Dems, rather than against the incumbent party?

The inevitable General Election projections give the Conservatives a majority approaching 140, but of course these are local elections and some Labour support will return to the fold when it comes to the crunch, but things are looking good.

Why The Sudden Interest, Chaps?

Almost every Thursday various council by-elections are held across the Kingdom. Pored over by only a handful of those in the areas affected, plus a few anoraks (yes, like yours truly) on Vote 200x.

Suddenly, this week we psephological amateurs have had our dirty little private gatherings gatecrashed by the BBC and others. Why the sudden interest in the elections to a handful of council seats, which happen to show a respectable swing to the Conservatives? Is the twilight time between the closing of Labour’s conference and Sunday morning in Blackpool really so quiet?

Or is it that Labour spin doctors, realising that they’ve probably done too good a job in whipping up snap-election fever, are now back pedalling, so as not to force Gordon Brown into having to call an election (or face a rousing chorus of chicken noises from the Conservative next week)?